🔍 Deep Dive #33
Europe Ends Union with U.S. Energy
📝 The TL;DR
European Union (EU): Produces 12 percent of the global energy supply, with 30 percent of electricity derived from wind and solar sources; depended heavily on Russian natural gas imports for electricity generation prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
After Russia’s invasion in February 2022, international sanctions on Russia constrained Europe’s supply of natural gas, catalyzing a regional energy crisis.
In the absence of Russian energy, the United States has positioned itself as the dominant energy partner to the EU, exporting significant quantities of liquified natural gas (LNG) across the Atlantic Ocean.
However, growing transatlantic tensions has propelled the EU’s transition to renewable energy sources, which would enable the bloc to achieve energy independence.
While Europe’s ongoing pivot from U.S. LNG will hurt the booming U.S. energy sector and eliminate thousands of jobs, U.S. consumers will experience lower household energy prices due to reduced global demand.
📍Europe Ends Union with U.S. Energy
Last year, the European Union (EU) produced more energy from wind and solar sources than from fossil fuels for the first time. Due to a remarkable increase in solar production, nearly 70% of all power generated in Europe came from clean and low-carbon sources, a remarkable turnaround for a region that generated almost 50% of its energy from fossil fuels only ten years ago. The EU plans to continue this drive towards renewable energy, aiming for 42.5% of consumed energy to be renewable (excluding low-carbon sources like nuclear) by 2030.
Both Europe’s desires and needs are driving its transition to renewable energy. In 2020, Europe imported 58% of its energy from abroad, primarily from Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted the bloc’s energy supply, forcing the EU to turn to alternative sources. In the absence of Russian oil, the United States became the dominant energy supplier to Europe, exporting massive amounts of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe. This further cemented the United States’ position as one of the world’s largest energy producers, and increased its influence and power within Europe.
As tensions continue to grow between the EU and the United States, European officials are questioning the safety of this new arrangement. By replacing Russian energy with U.S. energy, the EU is caught in the same trap as before the Ukrainian invasion—heavily dependent on an outside power for energy security. Europe’s fear of remaining dependent motivates the bloc’s push for renewable energy. Renewable energy can be produced domestically, which eliminates major sources of foreign involvement and leverage, allowing Europe to at long last become energy independent.
The Gas Must Flow
Since the age of colonialism, Europe has been dependent on foreign nations and territories for resources, wealth, and energy. Despite its global prominence and influence, Europe is relatively poor in terms of natural resources. In the past, European countries managed this weakness by plundering their colonial holdings, but in today’s world it manifests through a reliance on foreign imports, especially in the energy sector.
Russian involvement in the European energy sector can be traced back to the 1950s. Soviet natural gas was easily accessible, cheap, and abundant. European nations such as West Germany needed gas to support economic rebuilding, and Russian sources proved more reliable than diminishing and unstable European and North African sources. In return for the gas, European nations exported large steel pipes to the Soviets that they were unable to produce. Recognizing the influence these pipelines gave the Soviets in Europe, the United States strongly opposed the cooperation, attempting to use diplomatic pressure through the North Atlantic Treaty Organizations (NATO) by arguing that it facilitated the spread of communist ideas. Despite pushback from the United States, Europe and the Soviets began constructing the Druzhba gas pipeline in the 1960s, marking the start of the continent’s reliance on Russia.
The Weaponization of Russian Energy
Over the years, Russia boldly used Europe’s energy dependency to benefit itself. In January 2009, Russia abruptly shut off its pipelines through Ukraine due to pricing disputes, impacting Europe’s ability to heat itself in the middle of the winter. Heavily reliant on Russian energy, Europe acquiesced to the Russian demands, importing ever-increasing amounts of Russian gas at less favorable prices. By 2021, one year before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia supplied nearly half of all natural gas imports to Europe.
As tensions simmered in the Donbass—a region in Eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian-backed separatists prior to the 2022 invasion—Russia and Germany began constructing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which aimed to directly connect Germany with Russian gas supplies, bypassing old pipelines through Ukraine. Strategically, this project came at a time when Russian-Western tensions were already high, limiting direct pushback by the United States and EU due to fears of antagonizing Russia. The development also sought to deprive Ukraine of the billions it received annually in pipeline transit fees.
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, throwing the European energy sector into chaos. In March, the EU applied large sanctions to Russia, banning new investment in Russian energy infrastructure and greatly limiting European exports to Russia. Alongside the sanctions, the EU agreed to eliminate almost 90% of Russian oil imports to hurt Russia’s ability to fund the war. In retaliation, Russia slowed gas exports to Europe and demanded that European nations pay for continued gas imports with Russian rubles. Many refused to do so, including Poland, Bulgaria, and Denmark, causing them to be completely cut off from Russian gas in April and May 2022.
Following the invasion, the EU developed the REPowerEU plan, aiming to diversify their energy sector away from Russian energy through the development of renewable energy and increased energy imports from other regions. This plan intends to eliminate the use of Russian gas and oil from the European energy market by the end of 2027, and has accelerated Europe’s shift to domestically produced clean energy.
From Steppe Gas to Prairie Power
Whiplashed by the loss of Russian energy, the EU turned to the United States to satisfy its needs. The United States supplies more than 30% of the natural gas consumed in Europe, primarily through the shipping of U.S. LNG, which now accounts for around 60% of all LNG imported to Europe. Since 2021, U.S. LNG imports to Europe have quadrupled, positioning the United States as the largest energy exporter in the world. The United States has essentially taken the place of Russia in the European energy sector, becoming another power upon whom Europe relies for natural resources and energy.
The LNG trade between the United States and the EU continues to rapidly expand. President Trump has prioritized increasing LNG exports, reducing many regulations that had been holding back the industry by loosening rules around LNG pipeline repair timelines and the use of LNG as maritime fuel. Additionally, in July 2025, the EU and United States signed a deal ensuring the EU will purchase around $750 billion worth of U.S. energy imports until at least 2028. This deal requires the EU to spend $250 billion annually on imported U.S. energy—which would triple the bloc’s current imports of U.S. gas— in return for the reduction of U.S. tariffs on European goods to 15%. This controversial deal has attracted heavy criticism from many Europeans who fear a repeat of the painful Russian energy cutoff—only this time, with the United States.
In recent months, President Trump has made many comments regarding the Danish territory of Greenland, repeatedly expressing his desire for the United States to acquire the territory despite Danish insistence that Greenland is not for sale. Greenland’s rich natural resources appeal to Trump but threaten international norms of sovereignty in Western Europe, a traditional American ally. In February 2026, EU energy chief Dan Jørgensen called Trump’s actions a “wake-up call,” and indicated that the EU is looking to turn away from its dangerous dependence on American LNG in favor of alternative sources such as Canada and Qatar.
The Push For Energy Independence
Since the onset of the Russian invasion, the EU has rapidly expanded its renewable energy sector, aiming to reduce its reliance on outside powers for energy. In the year following the invasion, the European Union invested ten times more money in renewable energy than in fossil fuels. The REPowerPlan has driven this transition by setting higher renewable goals for the EU and cutting renewable red tape. The EU has simplified the permit process for renewable projects, greatly accelerating the development of new renewable projects. The EU is also modernizing its energy storage capabilities—a major roadblock to increased renewable energy integration because the potential variability of renewables makes reliable energy storage vital.
However, Europe’s rapid advances in renewable energy generation have begun to overwhelm Europe’s aging power grid. In 2025, solar power generation in Europe increased by 20%, but the design of Europe’s current electrical grid for fossil fuels limited the effects of this shift. Energy produced by fossil fuels is distributed to consumers from a central location, while renewables are much more decentralized and varied in location. Grid congestion—when transmission lines cannot keep up with the amount of energy generated—wasted energy in Europe. This has bottlenecked Europe’s transition to clean energy and caused a discrepancy in the amount of renewable energy produced versus the amount of renewable energy consumed.
Still, recent tensions with the United States—such as the Trump administration’s continued interest in Greenland—have pushed the EU to further hasten their complete transition to renewable energy despite these problems. Soaring global gas prices following recent and ongoing U.S. military action in the Middle East have only exacerbated the EU’s energy crisis, thrusting the region into another period of uncertainty. Fossil fuel imports, regardless of where they come from, allow for outside powers to gain influence in EU affairs, which limits the bloc’s ability to ensure the stability of its energy supply during times of international upheaval, as seen during the 2022 crisis. Many European nations now justify their renewable energy plans on the basis of energy independence rather than the green transition, a move intended to unify Europe and highlight the extreme geopolitical importance and necessity of renewable energy to Europe’s future beyond the need to neutralize climate change.
After the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the European Union heavily reduced its imports of Russian oil and gas. The scope of this change is significant. In 2021, the EU relied on Russia to supply around 45% and 27% of its natural gas and oil needs, as opposed to 2025, where those numbers dropped to 19% and 3% respectively. Since the start of the war, the EU has been forced to turn to alternative sources—primarily the United States—in order to supplant the lost Russian energy supply, revitalizing the U.S. energy sector and positioning the United States as one of the top energy exporters in the world.
Since the start of the war, U.S. energy exports to Europe have boomed. The United States currently exports 30% of all the fossil fuels that it produces, surging gas and energy prices for U.S. consumers. Increasing U.S. LNG exports have limited the supply of gas available domestically and exposed American gas prices to global price fluctuations. However, as Europe grows increasingly wary of its dependence on the United States and diversifies to renewable sources of energy, global demand for U.S. LNG will fall, lowering global prices and energy bills for the American consumer. The booming U.S. LNG industry accounts for over 200,000 jobs—a decline in LNG demand will jolt both energy prices and workforce stability.
The EU’s move to renewables demonstrates the bloc’s mounting anxiety over its strained relationship with the United States, which has compelled its independence from its longtime ally. This shift contributes to a growing trend of the United States’ increasingly unclear global intentions, threatening the longevity of European and American alignment.
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