🌎The Brief #32
Sudan Civil War Spills into Chad, South Korea Weighs Turning to Russian Oil Amid Iran War, Pakistani Airstrikes in Kabul Destroy Civilian Treatment Center
What We’re Watching
📍Drone Strike in Chad Raises Risk of Wider Conflict in Central Africa
Facts: On March 18, a drone strike in eastern Chad killed at least 17 people attending a funeral near the Sudanese border. Chadian officials condemned the attack and indicated it may have originated from Sudan’s ongoing civil war, where fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has destabilized border regions. Chad’s president, Idris Mahamat Déby, has since threatened retaliation, raising fears of direct cross-border confrontation and broader regional escalation. The Sudan conflict, which began in 2023, has already displaced millions and strained neighboring states, including Chad, which hosts large refugee populations.
Analysis: The strike shows tangible spillover from the civil war in Sudan, driven in part by drone warfare, which can lower the cost of cross-border attacks while increasing plausible deniability. More broadly, Chad’s threat to retaliate introduces the risk of layering interstate conflict onto Sudan’s civil war. If spillover continues, neighboring countries could be pulled into a widening engagement with few mechanisms for de-escalation. For the United States, the risk is significant. Expanded conflict would deepen humanitarian demands, threaten regional partners, and increase pressure for diplomatic engagement or security assistance in a region already strained by instability.
📍South Korea Weighs Purchase of Russian Oil Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure
Facts: On March 19, Reuters reported that South Korea is considering buying Russian oil amid economic challenges stemming from the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. Seoul halted Russian oil imports to align with U.S.-led sanctions following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. However, amid the Strait of Hormuz’s closure, oil prices have risen to over $116 per barrel while global emergency stockpiles begin to run low. Seoul’s deliberation comes after the U.S. issued a temporary waiver allowing countries to buy Russian oil without facing punishment. Other Asian middle powers have also moved to purchase Russian crude as the crisis renders their supply routes unstable.
Analysis: Despite the U.S. waiver, buying Russian oil contradicts Washington’s long-term objective of isolating Moscow. If this move reintroduces South Korea’s dependence on Moscow’s fuel, Seoul risks its military support and alliance with Washington, were the White House to reverse course. South Korea exemplifies the struggle many middle powers face as it is forced to consider its future standing with the U.S. while balancing the critical need to keep its economy running. This dynamic exposes Washington’s recognition that it can no longer demand loyalty without also providing the means for stability. The crisis gives countries with less leverage a chance to renegotiate the terms of loyalty while staying within the guardrails of their own security.
📍Pakistani Airstrikes Destroy Hospital in Kabul Killing 143 Civilians
Facts: On March 16, Pakistani airstrikes killed 143 civilians in an attack on the Omid Addiction Treatment Center in Kabul. Islamabad stated the strikes targeted a nearby ammunition depot whose secondary detonations caused the damage. Amnesty International denounced the attack’s apparent lack of restraint, highlighting that the hospital, built on a former NATO base, has been well-documented, operating since 2016. These airstrikes advance the “open war” that began on Feb. 27, which stems from Pakistani claims that Afghanistan supports anti-Pakistan terrorist organizations. The two Muslim nations agreed to a five-day ceasefire in observance of Eid al-Fitr that began on March 19th. Pakistan’s strikes follow the U.S. mistakenly targeting an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28, allegedly killing 110 schoolchildren.
Analysis: These attacks reflect an ongoing rise in military impunity across the Middle East and South Asia. As military conflicts escalate, the controversial strikes in Kabul and Iran set a precedent of reduced thresholds for violence and consideration of civilian targets. Washington reaffirmed support for Pakistan after the Kabul attack, suggesting a shift towards prioritizing military goals over the standard rules of engagement. As the U.S. challenges the constraints of the rules of engagement for short-term military effectiveness, it enables other regional actors to ignore them in pursuit of their own interests, lowering the threshold for inciting future conflict and inflicting civilian tragedy.
📍New Senate AI Bill Risks Removing State-Specific Protections
Facts: On March 19, Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) introduced the TRUMP AMERICA AI Act, a federal AI bill that would override pre-existing state AI laws, while implementing child safety and intellectual property protections. No federal AI regulation currently exists to fill that gap. This follows a Dec. 2025 executive order directing federal agencies to challenge state AI legislation in court. In 2025, state legislators introduced over 1,000 AI-related bills across all 50 states, with California, Texas, and Colorado among those with laws now in effect. The same month, the Senate rejected a similar provision aimed at freezing state AI laws for ten years, which drew bipartisan opposition.
Analysis: Replacing tailored state-level AI-regulation laws with a federal bill leaves states unable to address specific AI directives for their constituents. State laws have served as checks on factors such as AI-driven hiring discrimination and dangerous chatbot behavior. The bill’s previous bipartisan opposition signals that even within Congress, lawmakers recognize that canceling state protections before federal ones exist will leave Americans without options when AI causes harm. If Congress is unable to preserve specific AI regulation at either the state or federal level, companies can set their own standards, and individuals absorb the cost of AI failures—like inaccurate medical advice. When accountability requires a law that does not yet exist, individual Americans risk paying the price.
📍Lethal Police Raids in Brazil Fuel Debates Over Militarized Crime and U.S. Intervention
Facts: On March 18, Brazil’s Battalion of Special Police Operations (BOPE) carried out large-scale raids in central Rio de Janeiro favelas, targeting the Red Command (CV) criminal factions and killing at least eight, including commander Claudio Augusto dos Santos. The operation is a part of a broader pattern of lethal police action in Brazil’s disenfranchised communities. U.S. pressure to designate the group as a foreign terrorist organization intensified the CV’s control of domestic and international drug and arms trafficking, as well as its enduring tensions with police. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has rejected such requests, warning they could invite further U.S. intervention in Latin America.
Analysis: BOPE’s raid underscores a growing tension between U.S. counter-crime policy and Latin American sovereignty. Despite frequent clashes between Lula and Trump, Brazil and the U.S. remain significant economic partners, with Brazil supplying commodities like beef, soy, and oil. Still, escalating militarized operations ahead of Brazil’s upcoming elections in October could aggravate violence, corruption, and political polarization, triggering profound impacts on broader regional politics. For American households, increased disputes between Brazil and the U.S. may hinder supply chains, commodity and grocery prices, and living expenses.
📍Reportedly New U.S. Troop Movement Signals Potential Iran War Escalation
Our View: According to open-source flight trackers, a brigade of the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division arrived in the Middle East on Monday via cargo flights from airfields inside the U.S. Based out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the new troops would likely come from the 82nd Airborne Division’s “Immediate Response Force,” a Brigade of around 3,000 soldiers capable of deploying anywhere in the world within 18 hours. The flight developments follow President Donald Trump’s March 23 announcement that peace talks with Iran have successfully resumed. As Washington simultaneously negotiates and mobilizes additional military forces, Iran’s Kharg Island represents a strategic vulnerability for Tehran. A major oil export terminal for the regime, the island is a suitable target for airborne operations that the 82nd specializes in conducting.
💡On March 23, four ambulances from a Jewish volunteer service were set on fire in London. The group that claims responsibility for the incident has also claimed responsibility for assaults in Belgium and the Netherlands earlier this month, highlighting a surge of anti-semitic attacks across Europe.
💡With the Gulf region under fire, Algeria is emerging as a strategic energy supplier for the EU. Algeria’s pipelines run under the Mediterranean Sea, fueling the North African nation’s capacity to surface as a winner amid the Iran crisis.
💡On March 22nd, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced Indonesia would not pay the $1 billion fee for permanent membership in President Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace.” He further claimed to withdraw from the Board if the initiative failed to support Palestinians.