🌎The Brief #33
Friendship Treaty Signed Between North Korea and Belarus, Costa Rica Agrees to Receive Weekly Deportees from the U.S., American Citizen Arrested in India on Anti-Terrorism Charges
What We’re Watching
📍Belarus and North Korea Sign Friendship and Cooperation Treaty in Pyongyang
Facts: On March 26, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a friendship treaty at a meeting in Pyongyang. Although the contents of the treaty remain unclear, Lukashenko called the meeting “fundamental,” and said that “cooperation has now significantly intensified.” Shortly after, Belarus’ foreign minister instructed officials to open an embassy in North Korea. Belarus is a longstanding ally of Russia, having served as a staging ground for Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and later deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. North Korea has also moved closer to Moscow, signing a mutual defense treaty with Russia in 2024 and deploying thousands of troops to fight on the Ukrainian frontlines.
Analysis: While both Belarus and North Korea have long-established bilateral relations with Moscow, this friendship treaty points to the emergence of a bloc centered around Russian affiliation. Rather than pulling states away from Russia, Western isolation seems to have pushed them closer, creating a more coordinated and resilient network of adversaries. This strengthened partnership calls into question whether Washington’s isolation strategy remains effective. As the network’s bilateral relationships continue to consolidate, the U.S. may need to shift its priorities from keeping the countries at arm’s length toward shaping and disrupting the relationships before the bloc becomes too entrenched to splinter.
📍Costa Rica To Receive U.S. Deportees Weekly Under New Migration Agreement
Facts: On Mar. 23, Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves agreed to receive 25 U.S. deportees per week as per a “non-binding migration agreement.” The pact allows the country to accept or reject the transfer of U.S. foreign nationals who would receive temporary legal status and face trial under Costa Rican immigration laws. Chaves is the ninth world leader to assist the Trump Administration’s deportation efforts, which have incurred at least $40 million to deport roughly 300 migrants. Costa Rica’s cooperation is uniquely intensified by its 2025 alleged coercive detention practices, where nearly 200 foreign nationals were reportedly held in poor conditions, prompting controversy and court-ordered releases.
Analysis: Costa Rica’s compliance reflects a broader regional trend: Latin American governments are conceding to the U.S.’s outsourcing of migration enforcement. Further concessions seem likely as President-elect Laura Fernández Delgado prepares to take office in May, right-wing leadership consolidates across the continent, and U.S. coercive pressure intensifies. Should Costa Rica’s program yield success, American households will bear the costs: U.S. deportation efforts have already incurred tens of millions in federal spending, and the removal of undocumented workers filling critical roles in construction, agriculture, and hospitality risks labor shortages that drive up prices across everyday industries.
📍India Charges U.S. Citizen Under Anti-Terror Law For Smuggling Ukrainian Drones to Myanmar Rebels
Facts: On March 13, India’s National Investigation Agency arrested six Ukrainian nationals and Matthew VanDyke, an American foreign fighter who trained Ukrainian drone operators, at airports in Kolkata, Lucknow, and Delhi. Authorities charged the men under Indian anti-terror laws after allegedly trespassing into restricted border regions, training Burmese rebel groups, and smuggling drone shipments through Indian territory. The U.S. Embassy declined to seek consular access to VanDyke, while Ukraine filed a formal protest. These arrests come as Washington and New Delhi attempt to repair a relationship strained by trade disputes and diplomatic friction throughout 2025.
Analysis: VanDyke’s arrest reveals the limits of U.S. involvement when Americans are detained under a partner nation’s domestic security laws. While there is no indication Washington is actively ignoring VanDyke, his actions and the absence of immediate consular engagement suggest a cautious approach in a sensitive legal and security context. This response reflects the reality that individual cases, such as VanDyke’s, are likely handled within the constraints of the U.S.’ relations with the host-nation and its sovereignty. For Americans operating in conflict-adjacent environments, this case highlights the risk of U.S. support unfolding slowly when faced with the political tension of legal accusations against American citizens abroad.
📍South Africa Excluded from G7 Meetings Amid Ongoing Ukraine War
Facts: On March 26, the host nation, France, disinvited South Africa from G7 outreach meetings, despite previously being a regular participant representing African interests. The spokesperson for South Africa’s president Cyrul Ramaphosa, claims they were no longer invited to the summit due to boycott threats from Washington. However, French officials and other G7 members deny the claim and support limiting invitations amid concerns over South Africa’s foreign policy alignment; South Africa continues to engage with Russia and maintains its role within BRICS. Additionally, South Africa’s criticism of Western positions on the Ukraine war has created further tensions with G7 nations.
Analysis: South Africa’s removal signals a shift toward more politically selective multilateralism where participation in global forums is increasingly tied to alignment with Western strategic interests. It also reflects the Ukraine war’s continued role in reshaping diplomatic relationships far beyond Europe, influencing who is included in major economic and political discussions. However, the move raises concerns about diminished African representation in global governance spaces, especially as emerging powers seek alternatives to Western-led institutions. For the average American, the situation highlights how geopolitical rivalry can alter international cooperation, potentially affecting global markets, alliances, and U.S. influence abroad.
📍Unlikely Coalition Meets in Pakistan to Discuss Ceasefire in Iran
Our View: On March 29, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey met in Islamabad to lay the groundwork for a coalition aimed at advancing a ceasefire in Iran. The meeting yielded immediate—though limited—results, with these nations positioning themselves as mediators between Iran and the U.S. and Israel. Iran endorsed the coalition as a reliable liaison and agreed to permit Pakistani-flagged vessels to move through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf states, which were noticeably absent from the meeting, may wish to remain uninvolved due to newfound aggravations over Iranian claims of sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz. As the U.S. seeks to renegotiate with Iran, the importance of these four nations as intermediaries continues to grow.
💡Spain blocked U.S. military planes from entering its airspace on March 30, raising questions about the unity of NATO.
💡Between March 23 and March 30, Ukraine launched drone strikes on at least three Russian oil facilities in the Baltic region, temporarily halting 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity.
💡A 2026 study reveals Asia is now the central hub of illegal wildlife imports, sparked by increasing ties with Africa. Entrenched illicit wildlife trade endangers wild species and spreads infectious zoonotic diseases.
Fascinating--regarding the Costa Rica brief, I didn't know that eight other countries assisted the Trump admin's immigration policies.