🌎The Brief #35
Venezuelan Police Repress Wage Protests, Congo Raises Billions in Debut Bond Sale, UK Discovers Russian Submarine Operation, Ecuador Levies Major Tariffs on Colombia
What We’re Watching
📍Venezuelan Police Repress Protests For Higher Wages and Pensions As Crisis Persists
Facts: On April 9, Venezuelan police blockaded nearly 2,000 protesters demanding higher wages and dignified pensions in Caracas. Roughly 100 days after the U.S. capture of Nícolas Maduro, Venezuela’s GDP is expected to grow by 12%. Crude oil production has also increased to over 1 million barrels daily, with exports to the U.S. 192% above last year’s average. Still, Venezuelans cannot live off their earnings, facing a 682% inflation rate and a monthly minimum wage of $0.27—well below the UN’s extreme poverty measure of $3 a day. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez vowed to raise wages by May 1.
Analysis: Venezuela's socioeconomic crisis persists largely due to Rodríguez’s unresponsive leadership. Her governance, reflected in poor approval ratings of 23.7%, has failed to translate the country's economic gains into relief for ordinary Venezuelans. Washington is also at fault: the U.S.-led transition that promised Venezuela prosperity has yet to deliver it, while continued delays in rebuilding Venezuela's oil sector keep global supply uncertain. For American households, the stakes are severe as prolonged instability stalls the oil sector recovery that could ease gas prices. Meanwhile, deepening economic hardship pushes migration northward, straining U.S. border systems, public services, and housing costs.
📍Congo Raises $1.25B in Debut Bond Sale Marking Entry into Global Markets
Facts: On April 9, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) raised $1.25 billion through its inaugural international dollar bond issuance, taking advantage of improved market conditions following a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The government issued $600 million in six-year bonds and $650 million in eleven-year bonds, with strong investor demand pushing total orders above $4.8 billion. Congolese officials stated that proceeds will fund infrastructure, energy, and social development projects. The bond marks Congo’s formal entry into international capital markets as the country joins emerging African economies like Kenya and Côte d’Ivoire in increasing sovereign debt issuance.
Analysis: Congo’s successful bond debut signals rising global investor interest in resource-rich markets, particularly as Western countries seek alternatives to Chinese-dominated supply chains. While the move exposes Congo to global market volatility, the country’s vast reserves of cobalt and copper, critical for energy and defense industries, make it strategically significant beyond finance. African nations are gaining negotiating leverage into infrastructure and trade deals by balancing the U.S.-China competition. This directly ties Congo’s economic trajectory to U.S. supply chain security over electric vehicles and technology, meaning that if the U.S. fails to prioritize securing new access opportunities in Congo, both consumers and key industries could face direct supply constraints and increased costs.
📍UK Catches Russian Submarines Spying on Vital Undersea Cables
Facts: On April 9, UK Defense Minister John Healey revealed the UK had discovered three Russian vessels– a decoy attack submarine and two spy submarines– conducting surveillance on British undersea cables. These cables carry 99% of its international data traffic, including internet, banking transactions, and correspondence data. The UK subsequently deployed a warship and maritime patrol aircraft to track the submarines for over a month, forcing them to retreat. Healey has also since vowed to expand defense efforts in the Atlantic. Accusations of Russian efforts to map or damage undersea cables are not new: European countries have accused Moscow of cutting roughly ten cables in the Baltic Sea since 2022.
Analysis: Russia’s efforts to systematically map Western digital infrastructure highlight the growing threat of Moscow’s ability to leverage critical chokepoints that Europe relies on. The timing suggests an effort by Russia to exploit the war with Iran by quietly expanding its intelligence-gathering operations in the Atlantic. This threat emphasizes a new, uncertain era of informational warfare, in which digital connectivity becomes something to be mapped, threatened, and exploited rather than an international asset. Should Russia move to damage or cut the cables, it would disrupt various facets of society, severing bank payments, phone networks, and data connections.
📍Ecuador Hikes Tariffs to 100% Amid Dispute With Colombia
Facts: On April 9, Ecuador raised import tariffs from 50% to 100% on Colombia, effective May 1. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa said the move was driven by frustration with lax Colombian border security and drug enforcement. Colombia retaliated with reciprocal 100% tariffs. The dispute grew out of longstanding tensions between the countries, whose relationship is marred by controversy over cross-border bombings, organized crime, and a personal feud between Noboa and Colombian President Gustavo Petro. Colombia remains the world’s largest cocaine producer, which largely transits through Ecuador, and is the second most widely used illicit recreational drug in the U.S. in 2024.
Analysis: Hostility between two key players in the cocaine market will hinder cooperation against narcotics production and trafficking. By using economic pressure to punish Colombia for its drug enforcement, Noboa makes joint cooperation less likely in the future. When Bogotá and Quito publicly clash, they have fewer incentives to share intelligence, coordinate border enforcement, or mount unified pressure on traffickers. The resulting fragmentation is easy for criminal networks to exploit. The dispute risks weaker regional cooperation, more cocaine production, and smoother trafficking routes, sending more drugs to the U.S. market.
📍Chinese Foreign Minister Visits North Korea for First Trip in Seven Years
Facts: On April 9, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited North Korea for the first time since 2019. Wang characterized the visit as marking a “new chapter” in relations between the two countries, emphasizing stronger ties and a unified global vision. During the visit, Kim Jong Un echoed Wang’s sentiment by affirming North Korean support of Beijing’s “One China” effort. The North Korea visit follows a meeting between Beijing and the KMT, Taiwan’s leading opposition party. This meeting produced a resumption of commercial ties that China had previously severed, such as direct flights and imports of aquaculture products. These meetings predate the Trump-Xi Jinping summit this May.
Analysis: China’s diplomatic meetings with North Korea and the KMT demonstrate a push to reignite strategic partnerships and strengthen China’s alliances. This effort comes amid a U.S. pivot away from the Pacific, as Washington drives military resources to the Middle East. It appears that in response, Beijing is capitalizing on the diverted attention to strengthen its own footholds in the region, reaffirming a key alliance with Pyongyang while curating political priorities with important Taiwanese leaders. If Washington’s attention remains elsewhere, China’s reinforcement of diplomatic ties with key actors may further strengthen alliance networks that are adversarial to U.S. priorities.
📍Chinese Military Assesses Superior Capabilities Over U.S. in AI-Enabled Drone Swarms
Facts: On March 30, Chinese military officials reported information from Tamkang University in Taiwan, which assessed that China has surpassed the U.S. in AI-enabled drone swarms, with one soldier capable of controlling 200 autonomous drones simultaneously. This announcement follows Beijing’s March adoption of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which directs military spending toward AI through 2030. Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology found China’s People’s Liberation Army issued nearly 3,000 AI contracts between 2023 and 2024, several with windows as short as three months. Domestically, the Pentagon’s Replicator Program was built to field thousands of autonomous drones against China, but it delivered only hundreds by its August 2025 deadline and is still unable to network drones from different manufacturers into a coordinated fleet.
Analysis: China is pulling ahead of the U.S. in offensive drone warfare, exposing a gap in U.S. military capability that risks leaving American security concerns in the Taiwan Strait vulnerable. Beijing’s prioritization of drone swarm technology is complemented by its production efforts to keep pace in the industry. Comparatively, the stagnation of similar U.S. initiatives positions Washington on the back foot for any future conflict in the Pacific. If the Pentagon is unable to adapt accordingly, China may soon be tempted to pressure Taiwan through drones. With the island currently producing over 90% of the world’s most advanced computer chips, any significant disruption to its supply chains would mean American consumers pay much more for electronics, cars, and medical devices.
📍A New Leader in Hungary Signifies a More United EU Front Against Russia
Our View: On April 12, the Tisza Party of Hungary defeated former Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party, capturing a two-thirds supermajority in Parliament following economic stagnation and political scandals. The election of Tisza Party leader Peter Magyar marks a sharp break from Orban’s 16 years of illiberalism and anti-EU messaging. It also enables greater future support for Ukraine, as Magyar’s campaign backed loans for Kyiv and sanctions against Russia that Orban earlier blocked. Magyar’s election will distance Hungary from the Trump Administration and close the rift between Hungary and the rest of the EU.
💡In an interview on April 12, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated that the country was prepared to resist a U.S. invasion, adding that there would never be a justification for an American takeover of Cuba.
💡On April 13, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called on Lebanon’s government to withdraw from planned negotiations with Israel. His statement comes after intense demonstrations in Beirut against Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam for allegedly betraying the public by engaging in direct talks.
💡On April 13, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group warned that Yemen may blockade the Bab-el Mandeb strait, a key chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.